What are the odds that IP will overtake digital terrestrial radio ?
Short answer: Very high - in many countries, IP (Internet) radio is already overtaking DAB, and the trend is accelerating.
Detailed answer:
Why IP radio is expected to overtake DAB
Most analysts predict that IP radio will become the dominant distribution method for radio within the next ten to twenty years. Here are the reasons:
1. Device adoption
→ “Smart” phones, smart speakers, cars, and connected TVs—they all support IP streaming by default.
→ Fewer consumers are buying dedicated DAB receivers.
→ Car manufacturers are increasingly integrating online radio aggregators (e.g., TuneIn, Radioplayer).
2. Coverage and flexibility
→ IP radio does not require national DAB transmitters.
→ IP radio can provide:
- → More stations
- → Higher audio quality
- → Interactive features (metadata, graphics, track details, skip, on demand)
3. Cost for broadcasters
→ DAB multiplexer capacity is expensive.
→ For small and medium-sized broadcasters, IP streaming is significantly cheaper.
4. Listener Behavior Trends
→ Listening through apps (Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, podcast platforms) is growing rapidly.
→ Younger audiences rarely buy DAB devices.
Countries Leading the Change
→ DAB markets are strong (but still in slow decline): UK Norway (FM has already been shut down nationally), Denmark, Switzerland (FM shutdown planned but postponed)
→ Countries where DAB is weak and IP dominates: USA, France, Italy, Australia (mixed), Israel (DAB was tried years ago but has not yet been adopted)
Probability estimation
Not an exact science, but based on current industry analysis:
→ Chance of IP overtaking DAB as the primary radio platform: ≈ 80-90% in the next decade in most countries.
→ Chance of DAB being shut down completely (like FM in Norway): ≈ 30-50%, depending on political support and the support of broadcasters.
→ Chances of both coexisting for a long time: Very high - Traditional broadcasts rarely disappear quickly.
Yes, but mainly in:
→ Countries with government-supported digital broadcasting policies.
→ Cars that retain DAB receivers for redundancy.
→ Places where mobile data services are expensive or unreliable.
→ Overall, IP radio is growing faster and offers greater flexibility and lower cost